Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3037; (P) 1.3066; (R1) 1.3106; More…
With 1.3114 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected. Corrective decline from 1.3385 would extend to 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967 and possibly below. But still, we’d expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2912) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3114 is the first sign of bottoming and will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3289 resistance. Overall, the larger rally from 1.2061 is still expected to resume later.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2912) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
