GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3433 resumed last week and fell to 1.2842 before recovering. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. But further decline is expected as long as 1.3042 resistance holds. Below 1.2842 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, firm break of 1.3042 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, considering mild bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.3433 already. Price actions from there are seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.2811) is a sign of bullish trend reversal. Yet, break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 could just be part of a consolidation pattern.
