GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2036 continued to 1.2731 last week but retreated after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2716. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Some more consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected as long as 1.2590 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 1.2731 will resume the rally for retesting 1.3141 high next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 (2022 low). Strong rebound from 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 suggests that current rise from 1.2036 is already the second leg. However, while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.
