GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2306 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2678 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.2759 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2452 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the pattern from 1.2678 with another falling leg through 1.2306 support.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.
In the long term picture, while the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has been strong, there is no clear indicate of long term trend reversal yet. As long as 1.4248 resistance holds (2021 high), long term outlook will remain neutral at best.
