GBP/USD fell further to 1.2154 last week but formed a temporary low and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2637 resistance holds. Break of 1.2154 will resume the down trend from 1.4248 to 200% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2013 next.
In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) at least at the same degree as the rise from 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer term down trend. In either case, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.
In the longer term picture, rebound from 1.1409 long term bottom should have completed at 1.4248 already, well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. The development argues that price actions from 1.1409 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, long term bearishness is retained for resuming the downside from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.
