GBP/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.2213 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. IN our view, consolidation pattern from 1.1946 should have completed with three waves to 1.2705 already. Hence, we’d expect consolidation pattern from 1.2213 to be limited by 1.2382 minor resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.2213 will target 1.1946/86 support zone. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. Nonetheless, on the upside, above 1.2382 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2569.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected.
