GBP/USD’s rally extended to as high as 1.2989 last week, before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. In case of retreat, downside should be contained by 1.2582 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.2989 will extend the rally from 1.1958 to 161.8% projection of 1.1958 to 1.2582 from 1.2195 at 1.3205 next.
In the bigger picture, current development affirms the case of medium term bottoming at 1.1958, ahead of 1.1946 (2016 low). At this point, rise from 1.1958 is seen as the third leg of consolidation from 1.1946. Further rise would be seen back towards 1.4376 resistance. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.2195 support holds.
In the longer term picture, at this point, price actions from 1.1946 are seen developing into a corrective pattern. That is, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still expected to resume later. But sustained break of 1.4376 resistance will now be a strong signal of long term reversal.
