GBP/USD edged lower to 1.1958 last week but rebounded strongly ahead of 1.1946 low. A short term bottom should be formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.2162 minor support holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.1958 at 1.2502 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2837. On the downside, break of 1.2162 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1958 support instead.
In the bigger picture, we’d remain cautious on medium term bottoming around 1.1946 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.2779) will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.1946 with another rise to 1.4376 resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.1946 will resume down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.
In the longer term picture, corrective rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) was rejected by 55 month EMA. Long term outlook remains bearish. Firm break of 1.1946 will indicate resumption of down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.4376 at 1.1135.
