GBP/USD’s pullback from 1.3350 extended to as low as 1.2990 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for trend line support (now at 1.2971) first. Decisive break there will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3350.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.
In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.
