Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2770; (P) 1.2845; (R1) 1.2893; More…
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3297 is in progress. Break of 1.2784 will target 1.2661 low next. Decisive break of 1.2661 will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, break of 1.2919 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
