Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3037; (P) 1.3088; (R1) 1.3120; More…
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.2963 minor support holds, rebound from 1.2662 could extend higher to 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165 and above. However, as rise from 1.2661 is seen as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2963 minor support will now argue that rebound from 1.2661 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2784 and then 1.2661.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
