GBP/JPY’s steep decline last week indicates that rebound from 187.04 has completed with three waves up to 195.95. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Break of 187.04 will resume the whole fall from 199.79. Next target is 100% projection of 198.94 to 187.04 from 195.95 at 184.05. On the upside, above 190.62 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 174.68).
