GBP/JPY’s rise from 187.04 resumed last week, but retreated after hitting 195.95. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 195.95 will extend the rally once again, to 198.94 resistance. However, firm break of 192.00 support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall. Overall, corrective pattern from 180.00 is still extending.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 174.68).
