GBP/JPY’s rebound from 188.07 extended higher last week and the development argues that corrective pattern from 188.07 is extending with another rising level. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations below 194.98 temporary top. Above there will extend the rise to 199.79 resistance. However, break of 192.35 will turn bias back to the downside for 188.07 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 172.51).
