GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation pattern from 168.40 last week and started another falling leg. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 159.42 support. But downside should be contained there to bring rebound. Firm break of 169.91 will resume larger up trend. However, break of 159.42 support will now be a sign of bearish reversal and target 155.57 support next.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 150.68) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).
