GBP/JPY dropped notably last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week. Deeper fall could be seen to 159.97 support. Firm break there will raise the chance of rejection by 167.93 long term fibonacci resistance. Deeper fall would be seen to 155.57 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 164.13 minor resistance will bring retest of 168.67 high instead.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 149.84) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).
