GBP/JPY dropped to 159.59 last week and recovered. But there was no follow through buying. Initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another fall as correction from 168.40 extends, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 168.40 will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 148.31) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).
