GBP/JPY rose further to 157.74 last week but retreated ahead of 158.19 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Further rise is expected as long as 154.86 support holds. Decisive break of 158.19 high will resume larger up trend to 167.93 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, below 154.86 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support retains medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 147.06) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).
