GBP/JPY rebounded to 152.60 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 148.93 support will resume the fall from 158.19 to 145.10 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, though, break of 152.60 resistance will bring stronger rebound to 154.70 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 148.93 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. Firm break of 158.19 high will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, firm break of 148.93 will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10, and possibly further lower, as a correction to up trend from 123.94 at least.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 146.38) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. But sustained trading below 55 month EMA will at least neutralize medium term bullishness and re-open the chance of revisiting 122.75 low (2016 low).
