GBP/JPY’s rally resumed last week and hit as high as 141.61. Further rise should be seen as long as 138.24 support holds, in case of retreat. Sustained break of 100% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 141.07 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 148.36.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 144.90) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).
