GBP/JPY’s decline and break of 145.25 support last week clear up the outlook. Rise from 1.3865 should have completed at 147.76 after failing 148.09/42 resistance zone. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 144.04) will target 138.65 support and below. But we’d expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 146.27 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 147.76 instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we’d be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.
In the longer term picture, it remains to be confirmed is whole down trend from 195.86 has completed at 122.36 already and there is no confirmation yet. But in any case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.43 would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. And with that, the 55 month EMA will be firmly taken out which suggests that price actions from 116.83 is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.
