GBP/JPY was bounded in sideway consolidation below 141.50 last week and outlook remain unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 135.74 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern. That is, long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) and that from 251.09 (2007 high) are still in favor to extend through 116.83 (2011 low). We’ll hold on to this bearish view as long as 156.59 key resistance holds.
