EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1960 extended lower last week but downside was contained above 1.1712 cluster support so far (61.8% retracement of 1.1553 to 1.1960 at 1.1708). Focus will stays on 1.1708/12 initially this week. Decisive break there will indicate that rebound from 1.1553 has completed at 1.1960. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.1553 and possibly below to extend the decline from 1.2091. Meanwhile, with 1.1712 support intact, break of 1.1814 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness. And in that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1960. Break will target 1.2091 high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we’d be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1423) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.
In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. On the upside, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516. On the downside, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.0339 in medium term.
