EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.0953 last week and a short term top should be formed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0953 will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1400) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will keep outlook bearish.
