EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1213 resumed by breaking through 1.0330 support last week. A temporary low might be formed at 1.0223 and initial bias is turned neutral this week first. But further decline is expected as long as 1.0457 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0223 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0973). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
