EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0694 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor with 1.0804 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to retest 1.0447 support. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, above 1.0804 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1059) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
