EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1879 last week but retest this then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that pull back from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1669, ahead of 1.1661 support. Above 1.1879 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1787 will dampen this view. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside through 1.1669 low. Correction from 1.2091 would then extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510 and completes there.
In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It’s expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.
In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516
