EUR/USD rose to 1.1032 last week but retreated since then. The breach of 1.0800 minor support argues that a short term top was already formed, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is back on the downside for 1.0482 support, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1032 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rally from 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium term up trend rather than a correction. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.0482 support holds.
In the long term picture, while it’s too early to call for long term trend reversal at this point, the strong break of 1.0635 support turned resistance (2020 low) should at least turn outlook neutral. Focus will turn to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1207). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness.
