Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1808; (P) 1.1872 (R1) 1.1913; More…
EUR/USD’s decline from 1.2091 continues today. Break of 1.1822 support indicates near term reversal. That is, fall from 1.2091 is now correcting whole rally from 1.0569. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 1.1661 support first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we’re expecting support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2029 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the pull back. Otherwise, deeper fall will remain in favor as the correction develops.
In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.
