EUR/USD stayed in range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.0935 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0756 will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495. On the upside, firm break of 1.0935 resistance will intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1184 structural resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.
In the long term picture, in any case, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 holds, the down trend from 1.6039 could still resume through 1.0339 low. However, sustained trading above 1.2516 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.
