Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1840; (P) 1.1917 (R1) 1.1962; More…
EUR/USD’s pull back from 1.2091 extends further lower in early US session. But it’s staying above 1.1822 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook remains bullish for another rally. Above 1.1994 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.2091 resistance first. Break will extend larger rise from 1.0339 and target next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1822 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.1661 support and below.
In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall fro 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But after all, break of 1.1661 is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.
