EUR/USD’s rally accelerated to as high as 1.1383 last week. But as a temporary top was formed after subsequent retreat, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.1195 minor support holds. Above 1.1383 will target a test on 1.1496 key resistance. Though, break of 1.1195 will indicate short term topping ad turn bias to the downside.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now as it’s staying below 55 month EMA, as well as decade long falling trend line. Down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in favor to extend through 1.0339 down the road. However, sustained trading above 55 month EMA will firstly suggest that fall from 1.2555 has completed. It would also be an early indication on long term bullish reversal. Focus would be back on 1.255 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ).
