EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0989 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1073 resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 1.0879 should have completed at 1.1175. Below 1.0989 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0879 low. However, break of 1.1073 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias to the upside for 1.1175.
In the bigger picture, at this point, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move first. in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1568) holds.
