EUR/USD dropped through 1.1107 low last week to resume the larger down trend from 1.2555. As a temporary low was formed at 1.1026, initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first. But further decline is expected as long as 1.1162 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1026 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1412 to 1.1193 from 1.1282 at 1.0928 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that down trend from 1.2555 (2018) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1633) holds).
