EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.1569 last week and broke 1.1499 resistance. The development argues that rise from 1.1215 is correcting whole down trend from 1.2555. But as a temporary top is formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.1569 will extend the rebound through 1.1621 resistance to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1215 at 1.1727 next. On the downside, however break of 1.1422 support will bring retest of 1.1214 low instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.
In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1814 resistance holds.
