Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0605; (P) 1.0638 (R1) 1.0674; More….
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term bearish outlook is unchanged. That is, correction from 1.0339 has completed with three waves up to 1.0905. Fall from there is resuming larger down trend. On the downside, break of 1.0569 minor will turn bias to the downside for 1.0494 support first. Decisive break there should confirm our bearish view. In that case, EUR/USD should drop through 1.0339 to 100% projection of 1.1298 to 1.0339 from 1.0905 at 0.9946. On the upside, however, break of 1.0688 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.
