EUR/JPY’s decline accelerated last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 166.7 to 156.16 from 164.89 at 154.38. Firm break of 154.40 will resume whole fall from 175.41 and target 152.11 key fibonacci support. On the upside, above 158.00 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 159.74 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall to 100% projection of 175.41 to 154.40 from 166.57 at 145.56, even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.27).
