EUR/JPY edged higher to 164.89 last week but retreated sharply from there. But overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 154.40 is still extending. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Above 163.30 minor resistance will bring retest of 164.89 first. Break there will target 166.67 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.21).
