EUR/JPY’s rebound from 156.16 extended higher last week and the development dampened the original bearish view. Sideway pattern from 154.40 might still be in progress, and is extending with another rising leg. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 161.69) will pave the way to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, break of 159.09 support will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.55).
 will pave the way to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, break of 159.09 support will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.){kind=link}