EUR/JPY’s rally extended to 166.67 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 162.96) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38 will pave the way to retest 175.41 high. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that corrective rise from 154.40 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for this support again.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.40).
 holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38 will pave the way to retest 175.41 high. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that corrective rise from 154.40 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for this support again.){kind=link}