EUR/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 175.41 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Deeper correction cannot be ruled out. But for now, downside should be contained by 170.87 and bring rebound, to set the range for consolidations. However, firm break of 170.87 will argue that larger correction is already underway and target 167.52 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, as long as 170.87 resistance turned support holds, the long term up trend is still expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 139.05 to 164.29 from 153.15 at 178.38. However, firm break of 170.87 will bring deeper fall to 167.52 support. Decisive break there will confirm that larger correction in in progress for 153.15/164.29 support zone.
In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 167.52 support holds.
