EUR/JPY’s fall from 164.29 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 159.63. Breach of 159.75 resistance turned support suggests that it’s already corrective the whole rise from 139.05. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Deeper fall wold be seen to 161.8% projection of 164.29 to 161.22 from 163.70 at 158.73 next. On the upside, above 161.22 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in 55 D EMA indicates that a medium term top could b formed at 164.29 already, after hitting rising channel resistance. But price actions from there are tentatively seen as a correction only. There is no clear sign that the up trend from 144.42 (2020 low) has completed yet. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.12) holds, another rally through 164.29 is still in favor as a later stage.
In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high).
