EUR/JPY’s strong rally and break of 131.59 resistance last week confirmed resumption of rise from 127.36. Also, it revived the case that corrective pattern from 134.11 has completed with three waves down to 127.36. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 133.44/134.11 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 114.42. On the downside, below 131.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Long term outlook will remain neutral until breakout from the range of 109.03/137.49.
