EUR/JPY edged higher to 122.87 last week but reversed from there. A short term top should be formed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 121.09). Break there will target 120.17 structural support. On the upside, break of 122.87 will extend larger rise from 115.86 to medium term channel resistance (now at 124.26).
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise for the moment. Strong resistance could be seen at falling channel resistance to limit upside. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 127.50 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.65), this is the preferred case.
