EUR/JPY’s recovery lost momentum after hitting 120.68 and initial bias remains neutral this week first. At this point, rise from 115.86 is still in favor to extend as long as 119.11 holds. On the upside, above 120.68 will turn bias to the upside for 121.46 resistance first. However, firm break of 119.11 will argue that the rebound from 115.86 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 117.07 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 115.86 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective rise only. IN case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from falling channel resistance (now at 125.23) to limit upside. Break of 117.07 support will be an early sign of resumption of down trend from 137.49 through 115.86 low.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.93), this is the preferred case.
