EUR/JPY stayed in consolidation last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 117.55 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 115.86. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low. On the upside, break of 120.10 will target 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48 next. Sustained break will target 123.35 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is the preferred case.
