EUR/GBP was still bounded in consolidation above 0.8399 last week and outlook is unchanged. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8624 to 0.8399 at 0.8485. Break of 0.8399 will bring retest of 0.8382 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, sustained break of 0.8485 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8538 and possibly above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.8624 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9267 is expected to continue. Firm break of 0.8382 will target 0.8201 (2022 low). However, decisive break of 0.8624 will indicate that such down trend has completed, and turn outlook bullish for 0.8764 resistance next.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
