EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8786 last week but pulled back since then. Downside is contained above 38.2% retracement of 0.8402 to 0.8786 at 0.8639 so far and outlook is unchanged. We’re treating rise from 0.8402 as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.8303. Another rally is still expected in near term.
Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations below 0.8786. Downside should be contained by 0.8693 and bring another rally. Above 0.8786 will target 0.8851 resistance and above. Though, price actions from 0.8303 are seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.8693 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement 0.8549 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).
In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.
