EUR/GBP rise from 0.8472 extended higher last week with diminishing upside momentum. But there is no clear sign of topping yet. Further rise is expected this week as long as 0.8829 support holds, for 0.9101 key resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring pullback. On the downside, though, break of 0.8829 support will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8527). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion, if upside is rejected by 0.9101.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
