EUR/GBP dropped sharp to 0.8529 last week and took out 0.8620 key support. The development suggests resumption larger decline from 0.9305. As a temporary low is in place, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.8840 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.8529 will target long term projection target at 0.8416 next.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is seen a a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline is now targeting 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we’d expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 050% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
